GRA Market Weekly (2026-07-10)

Policy Watch

Six ministries jointly roll out a systematic housing-market stabilisation package

In July 2026, after nearly four years of deep adjustment, China's housing market reached a milestone inflection point. In a rare coordinated move, six core central ministries - MOHURD, the PBOC, the Ministry of Finance, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the State Taxation Administration and the Ministry of Natural Resources - spoke in unison as a systematic policy package covering the full chain of credit, taxes and fees, stock revitalisation, land supply, affordable housing construction and developer risk resolution took effect nationwide. The five core measures: (1) the PBOC deploys RMB 300 bn in special re-lending for affordable housing, with urban investment vehicles and Anju groups in more than 80 cities launching existing-home purchase programmes at 85-90% of each compound's six-month average registered price, renovating the units for supply to new urban residents as affordable rental or shared-ownership housing; (2) outside the core districts of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, minimum down payments fall to 15% for first homes and 25% for second homes, with mainstream 5-year-plus commercial mortgage rates steady at 3.05%-3.45% and first-home provident fund rates as low as 2.6%; (3) the nationwide distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary housing is abolished, resale homes held for two years are exempt from VAT, and the VAT rate for homes held under two years is cut from 5% to 3%; (4) the full individual income tax refund for "sell one, buy one" transactions is extended to end-2027; (5) mortgage-attached transfers are rolled out nationwide.

Market Watch

China Resources moves: prime Jiangyin residential plot sells at RMB 10,172/sqm accommodation value

On 2 July, a residential plot in Jiangyin's Nanmen area (plot Chengdi 2026-C-5) was successfully granted at reserve price to Jiangyin Runcheng Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. (China Resources Land) for a total of RMB 1.02963 bn, equivalent to an accommodation value of c. RMB 10,171.90/sqm. The plot occupies a prime central Jiangyin location within walking distance of Nanmen Station on Line S1. Zoned residential, it covers 93,725 sqm (c. 140.59 mu), with an overall planned plot ratio of 1.01-1.08 and total GFA of 101,223 sqm.

Core residential plot in Hangzhou's Century City: Poly Developments wins at RMB 4.605 bn

On 7 July, Hangzhou held its first land auction of the second half. After nearly a hundred rounds of bidding, a residential plot in the core unit of Xiaoshan's Century City was granted for a total of RMB 4.605 bn. Plot XS010106-13 in the Century City core unit (Hangzhengchuchu [2026] No. 52) sits in the heart of Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, adjacent to SKP and the dual-line Qianjiang Century City station on Metro Lines 2/6. Zoned residential (with supporting public facilities), it has a site area of 34,167 sqm, planned GFA of 95,667.6 sqm and a plot ratio of 2.8. The plot drew 12 developers including Poly, Binjiang, Greentown, C&D and Jindi; after 98 rounds, Zhejiang Poly Urban Development Co., Ltd. under Poly Developments won at RMB 4.605 bn, an accommodation value of RMB 48,139/sqm and a 26.68% premium. Gao Yuansheng, executive deputy head of the East China region at China Index Academy, noted that this marks Poly doubling down on the Century City core after securing Poly Tianjun, signalling clear commitment to deepening its presence.

First REITs index funds complete their offerings; equity-type REITs average a c. 4.5% distribution yield

The first batch of listed REITs index funds went on sale on 1-7 July, issued by four fund houses: E Fund, ChinaAMC, China Southern and CICC. Each fund is capped at RMB 300 m, for up to RMB 1.2 bn of incremental capital in aggregate. China Southern's fund was oversubscribed on day one and closed early. Equity-type REITs average a distribution yield of c. 4.5%, concession-type REITs an average IRR of c. 5.4%, and current equity-type pipeline projects offer distribution yields of 4.05%-6.25%. In the same period, the ChinaAMC Poly Developments closed-end commercial real estate securities investment fund was approved for formal launch from 15 July 2026. Its underlying assets are the Poly Center office tower in Guangzhou and the Poly Water City shopping centre in Foshan, both in the core of the Greater Bay Area, with a target raise of c. RMB 1.797 bn and a 32-year fund term. As the first central-SOE commercial REIT, whether ChinaAMC Poly Commercial REIT becomes a new template for commercial real estate securitisation has become an important window for observing the sector's transformation.

Project Watch

LIV'N Hongwan - a Shanghai Hongkou office-to-affordable-rental-housing conversion

On 2 July, Greystar's rental residential brand LIV'N held the grand open day for its newest project, LIV'N Hongwan. Located at 198 Siping Road in Hongkou District, the property was formerly the Shanghai Light Industry International Building, completed in 1997. Through renovation, the once-vacant office building has been reborn as a high-quality rental residential community for urban talent, adding new housing options for the Ruihong commercial area and the North Bund catchment. LIV'N Hongwan is jointly advanced by CCB Housing Rental Fund, CCB Trust and Greystar; the three parties co-invested to establish Shanghai Jianruihong Private Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership), completed the relevant equity acquisition, and drove the conversion of the office building into affordable rental housing. CCB Housing Rental Fund and CCB Trust participate as key investors in project investment and asset revitalisation, while Greystar handles marketing and operations management.

Beijing's Haidian launches dedicated affordable rental allocation for university graduates, with 1,000 units

On 3 July, Haidian District, Beijing published its 2026 registration notice for the dedicated graduate rental allocation programme. The allocation spans six projects (including Yanbao Xindian Jiayuan, Yanbao Wenquan Jiayuan and Xinrui Jiayuan), totalling 1,000 units, all operated by Beijing Affordable Housing Center Co., Ltd. Eligibility covers homeless graduates employed in Haidian holding full-time bachelor's degrees or above earned within the past five years; leases run two years per signing, with one month's rent waived per lease term, up to a maximum of three months.

Beijing's first concrete modular affordable rental housing project unveiled

As reported on 6 July, the "Smart Construction for the Future: Technology Empowering Urban Renewal" themed event visited Haidian District's first concrete modular project - also Beijing's first concrete modular affordable rental housing project - the Dinghuisi affordable rental housing project, for a close look at the real-world application of the smart-construction MiC technology independently developed by CSCEC Hailong Technology Co., Ltd. The Dinghuisi project is a prefabricated affordable rental housing development built by the urban renewal subsidiary of Beijing Haidian Affordable Housing Development Co., Ltd. and executed by CSCEC Hailong. The five-storey building uses CSCEC Hailong's proprietary "hollow composite shear wall + single-face composite wall module" system; under the smart-construction MiC approach, the entire building is decomposed into 203 standardised independent concrete modules. All modules leave the smart factory with integrated fit-out, utilities and bathroom installation completed to millimetre-level precision. Once transported to site, modules are hoisted and assembled directly, cutting the overall schedule by more than 50% versus conventional construction. On completion, the project will add 241 affordable housing units in Haidian.

Corporate Watch

JD.com pays HKD 750 m for student accommodation in Yau Ma Tei, Hong Kong

On 6 July, Far East Consortium announced that JD.com subsidiary JD Fabulous will acquire, for HKD 750 m, the entire share capital of Jiecai Limited, held under Far East Consortium subsidiary Dorsett Hospitality International. Jiecai's business centres on converting the guest rooms of the Silka Seaview Hotel in Yau Ma Tei, Hong Kong into student accommodation, with full conversion expected in H2 2026. On completion, DHI Hotel Management HK Limited (also a Far East Consortium subsidiary) will continue as manager, operating the student accommodation for three years and paying Jiecai a guaranteed income of HKD 45 m per year.

Iglu seeks a passive investor, with KKR and Canada's pension plan the leading bidders

Iglu, the student accommodation operator under sovereign fund GIC, runs a portfolio of scarce, sought-after student housing assets in Australia. It is seeking a passive investor; the stake-sale process is progressing smoothly, but the investment-bank advisers are screening bidders strictly and the entire process is bespoke. Citigroup and CBRE have full charge of the minority stake sale, with GIC valuing Iglu at c. AUD 3 bn overall. The mandate is unusual: GIC is not seeking a full exit, nor a strategic partner involved in operations, but institutional capital willing to commit more than AUD 1 bn without any hand in running the business - no board seats, no interference in day-to-day operations, and no pathway to eventual control. A sale of this scale would normally draw strategic industry bidders such as Scape Student Living, Blackstone and Brookfield, but antitrust concerns raised at the outset have effectively ruled such buyers out. The market widely regards KKR and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) as the two keenest candidates: both have full funding capacity and would make no additional operational demands, matching the deal requirements perfectly.

ESR-REIT: proposed SGD 247.9 m acquisition of five Melbourne logistics assets

To expand its Australian logistics exposure, lift the freehold share of its portfolio (from 19.3% to 23.5%) and lengthen average land tenure, ESR-REIT proposes to acquire five freehold assets in the industrial and logistics precincts of western and south-eastern Melbourne, with total lettable area of c. 122,400 sqm, average building age of c. 11 years and 90% occupancy. The net purchase price of AUD 276.8 m is 1.9% below valuation.

Overseas Watch

Central Hong Kong Grade A office rents post the largest half-year gain in 15 years

JLL's mid-year market review, published on 6 July, notes that Central Grade A offices - riding leasing momentum that has run since late 2025 - recorded their largest half-year rental increase in 15 years in H1 2026, and raises the full-year Central Grade A rent growth forecast to 15%. Cushman & Wakefield the same day lifted its forecast for Grade A rents across Hong Kong to 4%-6% growth, with Central rents expected to rise 10%-12%. CBRE data show citywide office vacancy down c. 0.6 percentage points to c. 16.2%, a second consecutive quarterly decline, with overall office rents up c. 2% in Q2. Sub-market view: rental trends continue to diverge between core Central and non-core districts. While overall market vacancy has eased to 13.1%, future new supply will cap further declines. Financial services and education are the main drivers of office demand.