GRA Market Weekly (2026-03-07)

Macro Policy

Nationwide: Two Sessions set the tone for the property market, with the housing provident fund named twice in the Government Work Report

On 5 March, in reviewing 2025 in the Government Work Report, Premier Li Qiang summarised real estate as follows: sustained efforts to stabilise the property market, reasonable control of new residential land supply, city-specific easing of restrictive measures, cuts to individual housing provident fund loan rates, and full completion of the "ensuring home delivery" task.

For 2026, the Government Work Report sets out: focused efforts to stabilise the property market; city-specific measures to control increments, destock and optimise supply; exploration of multiple channels to revitalise existing commercial housing stock; encouragement of acquiring existing homes for government-subsidised housing; deepening provident fund reform; optimising affordable housing supply; accelerating the renovation of dilapidated housing; and advancing the construction of "quality homes". The white-list mechanism for "ensuring home delivery" will be further leveraged to guard against debt default risk.

The housing provident fund appears twice in this year's Government Work Report - a rarity. It is also the first time the provident fund has been singled out in the communiqués of the Central Economic Work Conference over the past decade. Estimates suggest provident fund reform could release c. RMB 515.1 bn of funds, theoretically supporting RMB 360.6 bn of consumption and lifting household consumption growth by 0.7 percentage points.

Targeted Policies

Shenzhen: new urban renewal rules take effect 16 March 2026, with government to take a more active role

Shenzhen recently issued the Notice on Further Standardising the Management of Urban Renewal Projects, effective 16 March 2026 for a five-year term. To further align with the Residential Project Code, the Notice, on the one hand, optimises urban renewal policies for projects whose renewal unit plans have not yet been approved, on a "rule-of-law and market-based" basis, so as to implement the requirements of the Residential Project Code; on the other hand, it strengthens proactive government action, coordinating all parties to resolve pain points and bottlenecks, so as to advance Shenzhen's urban renewal projects steadily and at greater speed and sustain effective real estate investment. Experts suggest that strengthening proactive government action means Shenzhen will use the weight of government to accelerate the delivery of redevelopment schemes.

Chongqing: 22 measures to stabilise the property market lift post-holiday new home sales volume 7.27% YoY

Chongqing rolled out 22 new measures to stabilise the property market, with the package released in concentrated fashion over the Spring Festival period and already showing results. After the holiday, the city's property market made a strong start: new home transaction volume rose 7.27% YoY and transaction prices rose 0.3% YoY, with high-quality "quality homes" accounting for 28% of transacted floor area.

Market Watch

Wuxi: all seven residential plots sell in the first post-holiday auction for c. RMB 6.32 bn

On 5 March, all seven residential plots offered in Wuxi's first post-holiday land auction sold, covering c. 406,000 sqm for total proceeds of c. RMB 6.32 bn, with a top accommodation value of RMB 16,711/sqm and a top premium of 14.44%. Plot XDG-2025-80 in Huishan District attracted two registered developers and, after 25 rounds of fierce bidding, went to Nanjing Jinda Real Estate Development for RMB 618.32 m, or an accommodation value of RMB 3,307.59/sqm, at a 14.44% premium.

Hangzhou: Poly Developments takes a Shangcheng residential plot for RMB 3.224 bn at a 51.08% premium in the first post-holiday auction

On 6 March, Hangzhou held its first residential-use land auction after the Spring Festival, offering a single residential plot in the Chengdong New Town unit of Shangcheng District, with a site area of 32,576 sqm, planned GFA of 71,667.2 sqm, a plot ratio of 2.2, a starting price of RMB 2.134 bn and a starting accommodation value of RMB 29,776/sqm. The plot drew bids from multiple developers and ultimately went to Poly Developments for RMB 3.224 bn, a 51.08% premium.

Guangzhou: Tianhe District's spring land roadshow offers 46 plots, nearly 80% industrial

On 4 March, the 2026 Tianhe District Spring Land Promotion Conference was held at the international roadshow centre of the Southern Finance Building in Guangzhou. The event offered 46 prime plots, of which 36 are industrial-use - nearly 80% of the total. All 10 residential plots come with schools, metro access and retail in place, and 90% of them are under 25,000 sqm. This is more than a land sale: it is Tianhe's systematic use of spatial restructuring to drive industrial upgrading, in line with its development theme of "advancing industry and commerce together, integrating the two sectors, with the major district shouldering major responsibility".

Shanghai's "Seven Measures" show early results, with 11,300 secondary-home registrations in February, up 51% YoY

Since the "Seven Measures for Shanghai", released on 25 February, took effect on 26 February, market feedback has been positive and transactions have rebounded markedly. Shanghai recorded 11,300 online secondary-home contract registrations in February, up 51% YoY, with daily transactions climbing steadily after the new rules landed; new home transaction area last week reached 40,000 sqm, up 1,009.55% week on week.

The "Seven Measures" centre on three dimensions - purchase restrictions, the provident fund and property tax:

• The social insurance contribution period for non-Shanghai-registered buyers within the Outer Ring Road is shortened to one year
• The maximum first-home provident fund loan is raised to RMB 2.4 m
• First homes bought by adult children of Shanghai-registered households enjoy a temporary property tax exemption

Together these support both first-time and upgrader demand across the board.

TOP100 developers' land spend of RMB 95.04 bn in January-February 2026, down 52.4% YoY

In January-February 2026, TOP100 developers spent RMB 95.04 bn on land, down 52.4% YoY, with the rate of decline broadly unchanged from the previous month. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, February land supply shrank and the prior-year base was high, so developers' land acquisition volumes showed no marked YoY improvement.

On premiums, the average residential land premium across 300 cities nationwide was 11% in February, a marked increase. Prime plots in core cities were hotly contested: on 25 February, the Racecourse Phase I plot in Guangzhou went to Yuexiu for RMB 23.604 bn after nine hours and 243 rounds of bidding, a 26.6% premium and a record accommodation value for residential land in Guangzhou; on 10 February, a plot in the Niushalu area of Jinjiang District, Chengdu also cleared at a 23.03% premium. By buyer, central and local SOEs remain the mainstay, with large and mid-sized state players including Yuexiu Property, China Railway Group, ITG Real Estate and China Resources Land ranking at the top by land spend.

REITs Watch

Changrong: plans to file a commercial real estate REIT with Changrong Tower as the underlying asset

Tianjin Changrong Technology Group announced on the 5th that the 20th meeting of its sixth board of directors approved resolutions to act as original equity holder in filing and issuing a commercial real estate REIT, in order to revitalise its existing commercial property assets, broaden financing channels and strengthen momentum for sustainable development.

Per the announcement, the underlying asset of the REIT is Changrong Tower, held by wholly owned subsidiary Tianjin Mingxuan Smart City Technology Development, at the junction of Nanma Road and Nankai Erma Road in Nankai District, Tianjin. China Merchants Fund Management and China Merchants Wealth Asset Management will act as fund manager and asset-backed plan manager respectively. The fund is to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange under the provisional name China Merchants Changrong Closed-End Commercial Real Estate Investment Fund.

Corporate Watch

Shenzhen buyer pays over RMB 1.62 bn for Shanghai's Xinmao Building as a core Xintiandi asset changes hands again

On 4 March it was reported that Xinmao Building, a core asset in Shanghai's Xintiandi area, had completed an en-bloc transaction. Market sources say an ESR-managed fund completed the disposal for over RMB 1.62 bn, with the buyer an industrial enterprise from Shenzhen.

Xinmao Building sits at 233 Taicang Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, adjacent to Xintiandi Style North Block and less than 100 m from South Huangpi Road Station, where Metro Lines 1 and 14 interchange. Per public records, the project was developed by Singapore's CapitaLand (predecessor of the CapitaLand Group), completed at the end of 2005, and comprises a 20-storey Grade A office building with c. 32,200 sqm above ground and c. 11,200 sqm below ground, plus 141 car parking spaces. The transaction unit price of c. RMB 48,000/sqm represents a discount to earlier asking levels, but the high headline price still reflects investor recognition of scarce core-location assets.

China Cinda: RMB 26 bn Daxing Street workout project lands successfully

On 24 February 2026, Huangpu District, Shanghai held its 2026 groundbreaking ceremony for major projects, among them the prime-location Daxing Street project led by China Cinda. Sitting on prime land, the project has spanned 20 years and changed hands four times, involving not only a RMB 4.5 bn syndicated loan but also China Minsheng Investment Group, with deeply entangled creditor-debtor relationships - earning it a reputation in the industry as the benchmark "most complex revitalisation case". Critically, following this workout, the project's saleable value is expected to be lifted to RMB 26 bn.

The Daxing Street 717-719 block sits in the Laoximen area of Huangpu District, Shanghai, bounded by Zhonghua Road to the east, Yingxun Road to the west and Jiangyin Street to the north, with a total area of c. 43,000 sqm. It is prime land in Shanghai's core urban area - adjacent to Xintiandi, Huaihai Road and other high-end retail districts, with convenient transport and mature amenities, making it a scarce, high-quality asset in Shanghai's urban renewal pipeline.

The site's history dates back to the 34th year of the Guangxu reign (1908); in modern times it has remained a core part of Shanghai's old city, densely populated with aged buildings and an urgent need for redevelopment. Key milestones:

• In 2004, SRE Group (上置集团) acquired the site in raw-land condition, naming the scheme "Qinhaiyuan" and planning a commercial-office complex and luxury apartments, with construction expected to start in 2008 and complete in 2011
• Relocation proved far harder than anticipated; the first phase of demolition was only completed in 2010
• With SRE Group in financial difficulty, Zhongchong Binjiang came in at the end of 2016, taking a 49% stake as the project company's second-largest shareholder, while SRE Group retained 51% and management responsibility
• In October 2020, CMIG Jiaye, a China Minsheng Investment Group unit, and SRE's management team announced a restart, but this failed to materialise for lack of funding
• In April 2024, Zhongchong Investment announced the acquisition of SRE Group's remaining 51% for RMB 3.41 bn to take full control, but SRE Group's debt default in September that year led the court to force the stake into judicial auction, aborting the transaction and stalling the project again

Following Cinda's intervention and extensive multi-party coordination, the Daxing Street project was included in the annual major projects list and is expected to become a new city landmark combining high-end residential and a commercial complex. The project's plan was formally approved at the end of 2025. Per the approval, the project comprises two plots, 280A-01 and 283A-01, both mixed Class II and Class III use, with Class III accounting for 78% and Class II 22%, a site area of 23,715 sqm and a plot ratio of 3.23. Total saleable value is expected to exceed RMB 26 bn, close to RMB 10 bn above the RMB 16 bn envisaged in SRE Group's early plans.

Developers reposition: Yuexiu leads nationally with RMB 77 bn of new saleable resources in January-February; Vanke doubles down on Chengdu and Hangzhou

On 5 March, Yuexiu Property released January-February 2026 operating data, reporting contracted sales of RMB 18.63 bn, up 12% YoY, land spend of RMB 7.7 bn and RMB 77 bn of newly added saleable resources - the highest of any developer nationwide - with continued focus on core cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area.

On the same day, Vanke announced it would step up its presence in core tier-2 cities such as Chengdu and Hangzhou, planning no less than RMB 20 bn of new investment in those cities in 2026, focused on prime residential plots and urban renewal projects - consistent with a "focus on the core" strategy against today's polarised market backdrop.

Overseas Watch

Hong Kong records 7,923 total property transactions in February 2026, the second highest in 22 months

Per Centaline Property Research, February 2026 saw 7,923 registered property transactions worth HKD 62.420 bn in total, up 3.8% and 9.0% respectively from January's 7,631 cases and HKD 57.249 bn. The case count is the second highest in 22 months since the 9,880 recorded in April 2024, exceeded only by December 2025's 8,999.

This reflects the later Lunar New Year in February this year, with buyers entering the market early in January ahead of the holiday and strong sales at large primary launches lifting overall turnover toward the 8,000 mark. The impact of February's long holiday and the Budget's higher stamp duty on residential properties above HKD 100 m will show up in the March registration figures.

In the primary private residential segment, February recorded 2,557 cases worth HKD 27.53 bn, up sharply by 66.6% and 43.7% respectively from January's 1,535 cases and HKD 19.16 bn. The case count is a 22-month high since April 2024, while the value is an eight-month high since June 2025. SIERRA SEA Phase 2A in Sai Sha topped the month's launches with 621 cases.