GRA Market Weekly (2026-02-15)

Targeted Policies

Draft Shanghai Metropolitan Area territorial spatial plan on public display, covering 14 cities across Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui

On 10 February, the draft "Shanghai Metropolitan Area Territorial Spatial Plan (2025-2035)" was formally released for public consultation.

This cross-provincial coordination plan covers 14 cities across Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, and aims to deliver a breakthrough in building the Yangtze River Delta into a world-class city cluster. It proposes a new pattern of territorial development and protection built on "one core and four wings, three tiers, three networks and three baseline colours".

The "one core" refers to Shanghai at the centre, strengthening its "five centres" functions in international economy, finance, trade, shipping and technological innovation
The "four wings" comprise the northern wing at the Yangtze estuary, the western wing around Lake Tai, the southern wing along Hangzhou Bay and the eastern coastal wing, to be developed respectively into a world-class estuary region, innovation lake region, open bay area and marine economy demonstration zone

The plan strengthens the "three tiers, three networks, three baseline colours" spatial structure: within 100 km of Shanghai's central urban area, the commuter living circle will focus on integrating adjacent inter-provincial areas; within 200 km, the shared-city functional circle will strengthen industrial and innovation coordination; and within 300 km, the industrial collaboration circle will deepen regional linkage.

On major infrastructure, the plan confirms joint development of a "metropolitan area on rails", establishing 30/60/90-minute travel circles from Shanghai's main urban area; coordinated development of world-class airport and port clusters; and deployment of new-type infrastructure supporting emerging sectors such as the low-altitude economy and green computing centres.

REITs Watch

CapitaLand files a commercial real estate REIT: c. RMB 4.052 bn targeted, two assets valued at RMB 5.042 bn

The Shanghai Stock Exchange recently published the prospectus for the "China AMC CapitaLand Closed-End Commercial Real Estate Investment Fund". Per the core disclosures, the underlying assets of CapitaLand's filing are: Raffles City Shenzhen, a mixed-use complex in the core Nanshan retail district combining a shopping mall, offices and serviced apartments; and CapitaMall Fucheng, operated locally for over 18 years with occupancy stable at a high 98.23% and consistently robust cash flow - together forming a golden combination of "high-tier benchmark plus tier-2 ballast". The fund is expected to raise RMB 4.052 bn, with the two assets valued at RMB 5.042 bn in total. Raffles City Shenzhen is valued at c. RMB 3.85 bn, more than 76% of the total, while CapitaMall Fucheng in Mianyang - a non-tier-1 city - is valued at c. RMB 1.192 bn.

Chongbang files a commercial real estate REIT: Guotai Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real Estate REIT submitted to the SSE

On 9 February, the websites of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed that the Guotai Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real Estate public REIT had been formally filed with the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Founded in 2003, Chongbang Group brings together investors from Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada and the Netherlands with a management team experienced in real estate development, focusing on investing in and developing retail-anchored urban complexes in Shanghai and surrounding areas. Since inception, Chongbang has invested in and developed eight retail-anchored urban complexes - six in Shanghai, one in Kunshan (Suzhou) and one in Yuhang (Hangzhou). Among them, Daning International Plaza, Jinqiao International Commercial Plaza, Sinan Mansions and Jiatinghui City Life Plaza in Shanghai, Kuncheng Plaza in central Kunshan and Yuzhicheng Life Plaza in Yuhang, Hangzhou have become local fashion landmarks and consumption and leisure hotspots.

Shounong Food Group files a commercial real estate REIT with Beijing's Longde Plaza as the underlying asset

On 11 February, the Shanghai Stock Exchange website showed that the China Securities (CSC) Shounong Food Group Closed-End Commercial Real Estate Investment Fund had been formally filed. Beijing Hualian Department Store (stock code 000882) announced that it will jointly establish Beijing Yuanchuanglian Commercial Enterprise Management Centre with Shounong Information Industry Investment Co., Ltd. and Beijing Sanyuan Jiaye Group Co., Ltd. to acquire the 50% stake in Longde Land Co., Ltd. held by its wholly owned subsidiary Beijing Longdi Tiantong Commercial Management Co., Ltd. Per the announcement, the partners' subscribed contributions to Beijing Yuanchuanglian Commercial Enterprise Management Centre are:

Hualian Department Store as limited partner, subscribing RMB 500 m
Sanyuan Jiaye as limited partner, subscribing RMB 1 bn
Shounong Information as general partner and managing partner, subscribing RMB 10,000

Yuanchuanglian intends to act as sponsor alongside Longde Land's other shareholder, Beijing Grain Group Co., Ltd., filing for a commercial real estate REIT with Longde Plaza, held by Longde Land, as the underlying asset.

Longde Plaza is a large mixed-use commercial complex in Dongxiaokou Town, Changping District, Beijing, and the core retail destination for the Tiantongyuan area. Opened in August 2008, it has total GFA of c. 330,000 sqm spanning a shopping centre, themed streets and upscale department store retail, with average daily footfall of over 50,000.

Corporate Watch

Shui On teams up with onshore and offshore capital, committing RMB 3.3 bn for 99% of a core Huangpu office and retail asset

Shui On Land recently announced the formation of an onshore joint venture with Manulife Financial of Canada, China Life Trust and Dajia Insurance, with total committed capital of RMB 3.3 bn and Shui On holding 40.5%, to take a 99% interest in a core office and retail project in Huangpu District. The transaction is a restructuring of existing equity rather than a new acquisition. The former offshore holding structure moves onshore, opening access to domestic bank financing and lowering funding costs, with completion expected in Q2.

The target asset is Corporate Avenue 5 in Shanghai (including Hubindao Shopping Centre), a core complex in Huangpu District adjacent to Shanghai Xintiandi, comprising office and retail space with total GFA of 79,000 sqm. For the nine months to 30 September 2025 the project generated after-tax profit of RMB 51 m, with net asset value of RMB 5.505 bn. Tenants are concentrated in financial and professional services, with stable leases and solid cash flow, making it a scarce quality office and retail asset inside Shanghai's Inner Ring Road.

Marriott International sets another Greater China development signing record in 2025, up 25% YoY

Marriott International announced that both signed development projects and signed room count in Greater China reached record highs in 2025 - over 200 projects signed for the full year, up 25% YoY, with more than 36,000 rooms newly signed, sustaining strong momentum in the Greater China market. The group's luxury and premium brands continued to consolidate their market leadership. In 2025, luxury brand signings focused firmly on tier-1 and new tier-1 cities, including Guangzhou (its first St. Regis), Shenzhen (its second Ritz-Carlton) and Nanjing (its first JW Marriott). Signings in 2025 will also enter more eagerly awaited destinations: Greater China's second Ritz-Carlton Reserve will be located in Dunhuang, JW Marriott will make its Xinjiang debut on the shores of Sayram Lake, and the coastal resort destination of Sanya will welcome its second St. Regis resort.

Market Data

Secondary home transactions stay active in key cities in January, with most still "trading price for volume"

According to the China Real Estate Index System 100-city price index, average secondary home prices across 100 cities fell 0.85% MoM and 8.67% YoY in January 2026, while the ten major cities fell 1.12% MoM and 8.15% YoY.

On transaction volumes:

Beijing recorded 15,000 secondary residential transactions, down 12.3% MoM after a strong December 2025 finish; because January 2025 coincided with the Spring Festival holiday and saw reduced volume, this month was up 20.8% YoY
Shanghai recorded c. 20,000 secondary residential transactions, up 0.9% MoM and 27.5% YoY
Shenzhen recorded 5,281 secondary residential transactions, up 6.9% MoM and 16.0% YoY
Hangzhou recorded 5,437 secondary residential transactions, up 7.5% MoM and, against a low base, 19.7% YoY

On prices:

Beijing secondary home prices fell 1.28% MoM and 8.52% YoY, with prices still under pressure at the start of the year
Shanghai secondary home prices fell 1.22% MoM and 7.61% YoY, with the market continuing to trade price for volume
Shenzhen secondary home prices fell 0.97% MoM and 6.00% YoY
Hangzhou secondary home prices fell 0.70% MoM, a narrower monthly decline than the previous month, and 6.00% YoY

Structural rent increases in tier-1 cities: Shenzhen's average rent per unit of RMB 7,377/month leads the country

CRIC data show that, moving into 2026, rental efficiency for individually owned listings in key cities continued to correct as tenants gave up leases and returned home before the Spring Festival. Rental efficiency for individually owned listings fell MoM in all tier-1 cities in January, though declines were generally within 1%, with only Shenzhen slightly higher at 1.27% MoM.

Notably, despite falling rental efficiency, average rent per unit for individually owned listings across 55 key cities still rose 0.5% MoM, and among tier-1 cities Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen saw average rent per unit rise both MoM and YoY. The core driver is the rise of upgrade-driven rental demand: tenants are more willing to pay for larger, higher-quality, fully amenitised rental homes, pushing average unit rents structurally higher.

Shenzhen and Shanghai remain the rental peaks. In January, Shenzhen's average rent per unit for market listings reached RMB 7,377/month, leading the country; under Shanghai's structural divergence of "stable core districts, falling outer districts", its average rent per unit reached RMB 6,258/month, second only to Shenzhen; Beijing's average rent per unit reached RMB 5,926/month.

Read alongside the decline in low-priced secondary listings, some owners are becoming reluctant to sell. With the value proposition of individually owned rental listings improving - particularly well-located older, smaller stock where some rental yields now exceed 2.5% - some owners are choosing to "rent rather than sell", upgrading their units through refurbishment and better fit-out. The concentrated arrival of this higher-quality stock has structurally lifted overall average unit rents.

Developer bond financing reached RMB 596.72 bn in 2025, up 5.6% YoY

Total bond financing by property developers reached RMB 596.72 bn in 2025, up 5.6% YoY. By financing structure:

Credit bonds: RMB 342.87 bn, down 0.6% YoY, 57.5% of the total
Offshore bonds: RMB 16.15 bn, up 141.0% YoY, 2.7% of the total
ABS: RMB 237.7 bn, up 11.2% YoY, 39.8% of the total

Funds available to property developers continued the decline seen since 2022, indicating that the actual funding environment has yet to recover materially. Domestic loans gained share, supported by financing policies such as the city financing coordination mechanism "whitelist", while falling sales weighed on developers' liquidity and kept the shares of deposits and advance receipts and of residential mortgages falling. Funds available to property developers totalled RMB 9.3117 tn in 2025, down 13.4% YoY, of which:

Domestic loans: RMB 1.4094 tn, down 7.3%, 15.1% of the total, up 1.0 percentage point YoY
Foreign capital utilised: RMB 2.5 bn, down 20.8%
Self-raised funds: RMB 3.3149 tn, down 12.2%, 35.6% of the total, up 0.5 percentage points YoY
Deposits and advance receipts: RMB 2.8089 tn, down 16.2%, 30.2% of the total, down 1.0 percentage point YoY
Residential mortgages: RMB 1.2852 tn, down 17.8%, 13.8% of the total, down 0.7 percentage points YoY