GRA Market Weekly (2026-01-25)

Macro Policy

PBOC and NFRA: minimum down payment on commercial-property loans set at no less than 30%

On 17 January, the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to implement the decisions of the central leadership, adapt to the new supply-demand balance in China's property market and support a new model of property development. The notice sets the minimum down payment ratio for commercial-property purchase loans (including "commercial-residential dual-use" properties) at no less than 30%. Provincial branches of the PBOC and provincial offices of the NFRA, in line with local governments' regulatory requirements and the city-specific policy principle, will independently determine the minimum down payment floors for cities in their jurisdictions on top of the unified national floor.

Targeted Policies

Shanghai releases proposals for its 15th Five-Year Plan

On 19 January, the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee's Proposals for Formulating Shanghai's 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (the "Proposals") were officially released, setting out concrete arrangements for the city's next five years. The Proposals state that by 2035, Shanghai's "five centres" functions will be comprehensively upgraded, key development indicators will reach internationally leading levels, per-capita GDP will double from 2020, and the city will have largely become a socialist modern international metropolis with global influence.

On liveable housing, the Proposals call for: upholding a dual rental-and-ownership system to meet diverse and multi-tiered housing needs; increasing the supply of affordable housing and stepping up the sourcing of housing for urban builders and service workers in the new era; strengthening whole-lifecycle building safety management; and accelerating a new model of property development, building safe, comfortable, green and smart "good homes" and promoting high-quality development of the sector. "Land factor reform", "optimised urban spatial layout" and "high-quality urban renewal", combined with the "good homes" agenda, should unlock upgrade demand; together with "rental-and-ownership in parallel" and "greater affordable housing supply", they will advance the housing sector on both the market and social-housing tracks.

Suzhou releases proposals for its 15th Five-Year Plan

On 21 January, the full text of Suzhou's 15th Five-Year Plan proposals was published. It calls for accelerating a new model of property development, dynamically adjusting property policies as conditions evolve, improving a housing system of multi-party supply, multi-channel support and parallel renting and owning, and leveraging the housing provident fund to support housing consumption; it also calls for optimising affordable housing supply to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and disadvantaged households.

Beijing earmarks 350 hectares of affordable-housing land for 2026 to meet diverse rental demand

On 20 January, the Beijing 2026 Annual Construction Land Supply Plan was officially released. It prioritises the conversion of existing stock, supplemented by moderate new supply, and earmarks 350 hectares for affordable housing, increasing supply for new urban residents, essential city-services workers and other groups to better meet "a bed" and "a room" rental needs.

Changsha kicks off land buy-backs for the year

On 19 January, the Changsha Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning published a notice on the city's second batch of 2026 land reserve projects to be funded by special-purpose bonds for reclaiming and repurchasing idle land. Following review by the relevant authorities and agreement with the land-use right holders, five projects including the Changran plot in Kaifu District are to be included in the batch, with a total buy-back value of RMB 2.971 bn. Of this, RMB 50 m of special-purpose bond proceeds is earmarked to reclaim and repurchase the Kaifu Changran plot, covering 9,591.3 sqm.

Market Watch

China Universal's Shanghai Land rental housing REIT applies for an expansion offering

On 15 January, China Universal Asset Management announced that its Shanghai Land rental housing REIT (508055) intends to apply for an expansion offering and acquire two additional properties - the Jingyao and Jingbo projects in Pudong New Area, Shanghai - marking the first expansion of a Shanghai Land Group public REIT. The REIT listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on 31 March 2025; its original underlying assets are the Hongqiao Jingzhi project and the Jiangyue Road project in Minhang District - the former a benchmark of Shanghai's first batch of R4 rental-land developments, the latter a signature case of converting existing commercial-office stock into rental housing.

Benefiting from proximity to industrial clusters, the REIT has maintained stable operations overall. As of end-June and end-September 2025, occupancy of the underlying assets stood at 96.74% and 95.47%, unit rents at RMB 2.79/sqm/day and RMB 2.80/sqm/day, and rent collection rates at 99.67% and 99.48% respectively.

The Jingyao and Jingbo projects earmarked for the expansion both sit in Pudong New Area, with combined GFA of 207,700 sqm - 147,600 sqm for Jingyao and 60,100 sqm for Jingbo. Their injection will enlarge the fund, broaden its rental-housing coverage and strengthen its market competitiveness.

Shandong family buyer acquires Zhonggang Hui Huangpu in Shanghai for c. RMB 1.9 bn

The landmark Zhonggang Hui Huangpu project at Dapuqiao, Huangpu District, Shanghai, recently completed key personnel changes at its project company. Sitting at Dapuqiao Station on Metro Line 9 and originally developed by SRE Group - the developer of Shanghai Huafu Tiandi - it is Shanghai's earliest mixed-use complex, spanning hotel, office and retail uses with total lettable area of c. 75,200 sqm. Part of the office space was previously sold off in strata units, and the hotel portion has only 16 years of land tenure remaining. The buyer is a low-profile Shandong family business active in rare earths, graphite and zirconium-titanium.

CTF Services acquires three logistics assets in mainland China

On 16 January 2026, CTF Services announced the acquisition of 100% interests in three industrial logistics properties in East China from funds managed by TPG Angelo Gordon, with total lettable area of c. 1.72 m sq ft (160,000 sqm). Following its Greater Bay Area move in September 2025, this is another significant step in mainland logistics, further expanding its logistics footprint. The Chow Tai Fook group currently holds nine logistics assets across Hong Kong, Chengdu, Wuhan, Suzhou and Dongguan with total lettable area of c. 12.79 m sq ft. Upon completion, the group's logistics portfolio will grow to 12 assets with total lettable area of c. 14.51 m sq ft - scaling up the portfolio while reinforcing its strategic position in the core Yangtze River Delta and completing its mainland logistics network.

En-bloc office sale closes in Beijing's Lize district

Market sources report that Beijing Jintang Likong Property Development ("Jintang Likong"), a subsidiary of Lize Holdings Group, has formally signed an agreement with Dahongmen (Beijing) Construction Development ("Dahongmen Construction"). Jintang Likong completed a bulk sale of the entire Tower 18-2 plus selected space in Towers 18-1 and 18-3 of the Lize Digital Financial Technology Demonstration Park, totalling c. 50,000 sqm of GFA. The park is a premium Grade A office cluster in the core of Beijing's Lize Financial Business District, with total GFA of c. 500,000 sqm across seven office towers, two executive apartment buildings and flagship retail, focused on fintech fields such as the digital RMB and digital regulation. With total investment of RMB 14 bn, the project broke ground in February 2024 and topped out in November 2025; it now houses over 1,300 companies, including the National Digital Finance Technology Testing Center.

Listed developers' 2025 results previews

Per WIND data, 27 developers had issued 2025 earnings pre-announcements or flash reports as of 20 January. Apart from industry leader Poly Developments, whose net profit attributable to shareholders remained positive, all reported losses of varying degrees. On a simple aggregate basis, disclosed losses so far range from RMB 47.546 bn to RMB 62.464 bn.

Poly Developments barely held on to positive earnings. Its 2025 flash report shows revenue of c. RMB 308.261 bn, down 1.09% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of c. RMB 1.026 bn, down 79.49% YoY; and basic EPS of RMB 0.09, down 79.47% YoY.

Public REITs reach RMB 210 bn in 2025 with multiple first-of-kind listings

Per Cushman & Wakefield, 78 public REITs were listed in mainland China as of December 2025, with a combined size of RMB 210 bn - the largest count in Asia and second globally. Twenty new REITs were issued in 2025, versus 29 in 2024, 5 in 2023, and 11 and 13 in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Notably, 2025 saw numerous first-of-kind issuances, including the first data centre public REIT (Southern GDS Data Center REIT), the first urban-renewal industrial park infrastructure REIT (ChinaAMC BBMG Innovation Workshop REIT) and the first foreign-sponsored consumer infrastructure REIT (ChinaAMC CapitaLand Commercial REIT).

With policy continuously refined through 2025, consumer infrastructure, rental housing and data centres became the three asset classes investors watch most closely. By contrast, attention to warehousing and logistics receded, and institutional interest in Grade A offices and business parks kept declining, with deal flow tilting toward owner-occupier buyers. Long-term rental and serviced apartments, backed by stable demand and policy support, emerged as an investment hotspot.

As of December 2025, eight affordable rental housing REITs had been issued, with an average annualised secondary-market distribution yield of 3%, completing the full "invest-finance-manage-exit" loop - the core driver of the sector's rising momentum in 2025. Insurance capital and private real estate funds are the main investors: the former favours assets with stable cash flows, while the latter focuses on value-add strategies such as commercial-to-rental conversions.

In the public market, the Huatai Suzhou Hengtai rental housing REIT listed on the SSE on 21 May 2025 and jumped 30% at the open, hitting the first-day limit for public REITs; the China Universal Shanghai Land rental housing REIT listed on 31 March 2025 with a first-day gain of over 30%, likewise at the limit - moving from approval to listing in just 18 working days, a record for the public REITs market, and the country's first "commercial-to-affordable-rental" REIT. First-day gains of the Southern GDS Data Center REIT and the CICC China Lvfa Commercial REIT also hit the 30% cap.

Hainan residential transactions surge after Free Trade Port customs closure

On 18 December 2025, the Hainan Free Trade Port formally launched island-wide independent customs operation. The institutional dividends of the special customs regime - zero tariffs and low tax rates - are widely expected to lift the long-term value and appeal of Hainan assets materially. That expectation quickly showed up in the data: in December 2025, Sanya's commodity housing transactions surged 144% MoM by unit count, with transaction value exceeding RMB 6.04 bn. A CRIC report shows Haikou and Sanya climbing 11 and 28 places respectively in the 2025 investment-prospects rankings, underscoring their investment appeal.