GRA Market Weekly (2025-11-28)

Policy Watch

Beijing releases its recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan

On 26 November, the CPC Beijing Municipal Committee released its Recommendations for Formulating Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, pledging continued progress on housing access and an accelerated build-out of a new model for real estate development. The recommendations propose improving a "market + security" housing supply system, strengthening the rental-and-purchase framework, prioritising land supply around rail transit stations and promoting station-city integration. Beijing will optimise affordable housing supply and activate existing resources, focusing on the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and families in difficulty; it will also expand effective rental housing supply, cultivate market-based professional institutions, regulate the rental market, and explore a "one bed, one room" model to improve living conditions for essential urban-services workers. In addition, Beijing plans to increase upgrade-oriented housing supply, build safe, comfortable, green and smart "good homes", implement housing quality and property-management upgrade programmes, and establish a full life-cycle housing safety management system.

Chengdu issues policy measures on optimising the use of existing resources

Recently, the Chengdu Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, the Planning and Natural Resources Bureau and the Commerce Bureau jointly issued the Notice on Policy Measures to Promote the Optimised Use of Existing Resources. It stipulates that for mixed commercial-residential land and combined commercial-residential plots, commercial and residential components must be completed and put into operation simultaneously. It also allows self-held rental housing that was mandated at the original land grant to be converted into ordinary commodity housing and sold on the market.

Market Watch

Beijing: land auctions raise RMB 7.743 bn

On 27 November, Beijing offered a residential plot in Tongzhou District - the Jiukeshu South plot. China Overseas and Beijing Urban Construction competed in on-site bidding, with China Overseas winning at RMB 1.248 bn - a floor price of RMB 22,929/sqm (RMB 23,185/sqm for the residential portion) and a 0.97% premium.

On 25 November, Beijing offered two residential-use plots, in Songyuli, Chaoyang District, and Guangyangcheng, Fangshan District, with combined site area of 84,500 sqm, planned GFA of 176,800 sqm and a combined starting price of RMB 5.721 bn. The Songyuli plot cleared at an 18.21% premium and the Guangyangcheng plot at reserve price, for total proceeds of RMB 6.495 bn.

Hangzhou: Binjiang sweeps two Xiaoshan residential plots for RMB 2.462 bn, both at premiums above 10%

On 27 November, Hangzhou offered two more residential plots in Xiaoshan District, in the Xianghu and Shibei units, with combined site area of 62,800 sqm, planned GFA of 112,900 sqm and a combined starting price of RMB 2.157 bn. Both plots cleared at premiums above 10%, both taken by Binjiang Group, for total proceeds of RMB 2.462 bn.

Shanghai: ninth batch closes with all nine plots sold

On 24 November, Shanghai's ninth land auction batch concluded with all nine plots transacted. Total GFA offered reached 552,600 sqm (including c. 20,300 sqm of commercial-office land), with land proceeds totalling RMB 17.333 bn and an average floor price of c. RMB 31,366/sqm. Seven plots sold at reserve price and two at premiums. The most sought-after Chuansha plot in Pudong went to Jiayun Real Estate for RMB 2.475 bn at a 15.76% premium; the Xujing plot in Qingpu was taken by Baoye Group for RMB 1.73 bn at a 5.17% premium.

Chengdu: land auctions raise RMB 1.758 bn

On 28 November, Chengdu (municipal level) offered three residential-use plots, in Jinniu, Wuhou and Xinjin districts, with combined land area of 75,400 sqm, planned GFA of 167,700 sqm and a combined starting price of RMB 1.698 bn. The Wuhou plot cleared at a 7.22% premium and the other two at reserve price, for total proceeds of RMB 1.758 bn.

Nanjing: land auctions raise RMB 859 m

On 28 November, Nanjing offered two residential plots, in Jiangning and Pukou districts, with combined land area of 80,400 sqm, planned GFA of 156,000 sqm and a combined starting price of RMB 756 m. The Jiangning plot cleared at a premium above 23% and the Pukou plot at reserve price, for combined proceeds of RMB 859 m.

Project Watch

Hangzhou: Qinxianli Boyu University Town North launches leasing

On 27 November, a new talent rental housing project in Qiantang District - Qinxianli Boyu University Town North - began its first round of centralised leasing. Located at 18 Yinhai Street, Qiantang District, the project has 684 units in one-bedroom and two-bedroom layouts, with 167 units released in the first batch. All units come with independent kitchens, bathrooms and balconies, fully furnished and equipped for move-in-ready living.

Shaoxing: Shimao Plaza goes to auction at a 58% discount

Recently, market sources reported that Shaoxing Shimao Plaza will go to auction from 29 November, with a starting price of RMB 439.67 m - RMB 3,263/sqm based on retail GFA. The commercial complex on Shengli East Road, Yuecheng District, Shaoxing, has a total GFA of 184,000 sqm, including 135,000 sqm of above-ground retail. This will be its third judicial auction on 29 November 2025, with the starting price of RMB 439.67 m representing a 42% discount to the original appraisal of RMB 1.044 bn; if it fails to sell, the next round would drop to RMB 350 m.

Beijing: landmark Sanlitun hotel up for auction

The building housing the CHAO Hotel in core Sanlitun, Beijing, goes to its second auction on 5 December, with a starting price of c. RMB 1.177 bn - c. RMB 45,500/sqm based on above-ground GFA.

CHAO is a well-known luxury art hotel in Beijing, formerly the City Hotel built in 1989 and relaunched under the CHAO brand after a 2016 conversion. Blending art, design and sustainability, it offers 180 rooms, an arts centre and distinctive dining spaces, positioned around high-end artistic experiences and community events. The building was redesigned by Germany's GMP; signature features such as the daylight chapel have become social-media landmarks, alongside eco-conscious details like biodegradable amenities. Room rates typically exceed RMB 2,000 per night, drawing international travellers and culture enthusiasts, with member privileges and community programming in recent years cementing its status as a Sanlitun cultural landmark. Since reopening after its 2016 conversion, the 80-metre hotel has been one of the hottest destinations in the Sanlitun precinct.

Corporate Watch

Vanke formally announces a bond extension plan

On 26 November, Vanke announced via the Shanghai Clearing House that, pursuant to the Rules for Bondholder Meetings of Non-Financial Enterprise Debt Financing Instruments in the Interbank Bond Market and relevant terms of the issuance documents, it plans to convene the first 2025 holders' meeting for its 2022 fourth-tranche medium-term notes, scheduled for 10 December. The notes mature on 15 December 2025 with an outstanding balance of RMB 2 bn. Beyond this tranche, Vanke has another MTN with RMB 3.7 bn outstanding due at the end of December.

New World Development formally announces a deferral

On 26 November, New World Development announced it would defer the coupon dates of four series of perpetual bonds originally payable on 9, 10, 16 and 22 December. The company has notified all relevant perpetual bondholders and said it would make further announcements in due course in accordance with applicable terms and conditions, listing rules and regulations.

The four series of perpetuals involve a combined principal of USD 3.4 bn. The deferral affects bondholders and market expectations to a degree. As a prominent Hong Kong developer, New World's financial position and debt management are closely watched; the coupon deferral may weigh on the company's credit ratings and share price.

KKR sells a Hyatt hotel for USD 800 m

On 25 November, US investment firm KKR, together with Gaw Capital, announced the sale of a Hyatt hotel in Tokyo for over USD 800 m; the buyer has not been disclosed. The asset was jointly acquired in March 2023 and held for about a year and a half. The deal is the latest move in KKR's Asian hotel asset-rotation strategy, crystallising appreciation gains and optimising fund portfolio allocation. The Tokyo Hyatt sits in a prime Minato ward location, with occupancy and average room rates recovering steadily post-pandemic, making it a core target for international capital.

Meituan launches "rider apartments", with the first batch expected to house over 600 riders

On 21 November, Meituan held the fifth-anniversary event of its "Tongzhou Programme" in Beijing, announcing RMB 10 bn of investment over the next five years to build a more comprehensive rider welfare system. In Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing and other cities, Meituan has launched "rider apartments" offering cost-effective, secure subsidised housing for delivery riders. Addressing riders' family needs, Meituan is extending critical-illness care payments from riders and their children to spouses and parents, and expanding the coverage of its "Kangaroo Baby" charity programme for riders' children.

CJIA Suisse Place signs two core Beijing properties

Recently, CJIA signed two projects: the Suisse Place Apartment Hotel at Joy City Chaoyang and the Suisse Place Apartment Hotel in Tongzhou, Beijing. Both are rebrandings of operating branded hotels, and both sit in core Beijing precincts - one in Chaoyang's cultural-creative heartland, the other in the Tongzhou sub-centre business district. The simultaneous rebranding sends a clear signal to the stock-conversion market.

Shandong Haipeng Group buys the Atour Hotel Hongqiao for RMB 205 m

Recently, Shandong Haipeng Group acquired the Atour Hotel Hongqiao, with a total GFA of 13,498.91 sqm (9,281.70 sqm above ground, 4,217.21 sqm below), located in the core Hongqiao hub business district. Opened on 31 December 2017 with 166 rooms, it adjoins the National Exhibition and Convention Center and the Hongqiao business district. The property is operated under a long-term lease by Atour, with sound operating performance; the lease runs to 2032 at an annual rent of c. RMB 8.7 m. The price equates to RMB 22,000/sqm, an investment yield of c. 4.35%. The acquisition reflects Shandong Haipeng Economic Development Group's conviction in the Hongqiao area's prospects and lays a foundation for further expansion in East China.

China Index Academy's 2026 outlook

Under its base-case scenario, new commodity housing sales area is projected to fall around 6% YoY in 2026, a narrower decline than this year; average annual new commodity residential sales during the 15th Five-Year Plan period are estimated at c. 700-800 m sqm.

2026 property policy will focus on "halting the decline and restoring stability" - removing housing-consumption restrictions, optimising policies in core cities, cutting mortgage rates, accelerating urban-village redevelopment and the purchase of existing land and housing stock, while refining "good home" standards. Over the medium to long term, policy will track the 15th Five-Year Plan's quality goals, advancing urban renewal and supporting measures.

China Index Academy estimates that in the 2026 base case, new commodity housing sales area falls c. 6%, new starts c. 9% and investment c. 11% - all narrower declines - with "good cities + good homes" as the structural opportunity.

Nationwide urban housing demand over the 15th Five-Year Plan period is estimated at c. 4.98 bn sqm, with commodity housing absorbing 70%-80% of demand - annual sales of 700-800 m sqm - and upgrade demand exceeding 40%. Current new-home volumes sit at a reasonable midpoint, with the industry expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment in the middle-to-late plan period.