GRA Market Weekly (2025-10-24)

Macro Policy

Communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee: advance high-quality development of the property sector

The communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee calls for stronger efforts to safeguard and improve people's livelihoods and steady progress towards common prosperity for all. It stresses doing everything feasible within available means, strengthening inclusive, foundational and last-resort livelihood provision, addressing the people's most pressing concerns, opening channels for social mobility and raising quality of life. It calls for promoting high-quality and full employment, refining the income distribution system, delivering education that satisfies the people, improving the social security system, advancing high-quality development of the property sector, accelerating the building of a Healthy China, promoting high-quality population development, and steadily advancing equal access to basic public services.

Targeted Policies

Shanghai issues construction industry action plan: 21 measures to stabilise property investment and accelerate urban renewal

On 21 October, the General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Construction Industry and Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Drivers in Shanghai, setting out 21 specific measures across eight areas. The Action Plan calls for consolidating and upgrading construction enterprises, building a new model for property development, stabilising the scale of real estate investment and shoring up the fundamentals of Shanghai's construction market. It also calls for accelerating urban renewal action and expanding its coverage and pace.

Hangzhou: five districts and county-level cities launch time-limited "home purchase + consumption voucher" subsidies of RMB 100,000 per unit

The Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of Housing Security and Administration announced that, to further stimulate housing consumption, support residents' essential and upgrade housing demand and promote continued stable and healthy development of the property market, five districts and county-level cities in Hangzhou (Fuyang, Lin'an, Tonglu, Chun'an and Jiande) issued notices on 24 October launching time-limited "home purchase + consumption voucher" subsidy campaigns, granting eligible participants RMB 100,000 in consumption vouchers per unit purchased.

Market Watch

Shanghai: eighth land batch raises RMB 19.88 bn as Xuhui Riverside sets a new record accommodation value of RMB 148,500/sqm

On 20 October, Shanghai concluded its eighth batch of residential land sales, with six plots raising RMB 19.88 bn in total. Three plots cleared at premiums, the highest at 14.7%, with the rest selling at reserve price. The Xuhui Riverside area produced another record-priced plot: China Overseas paid RMB 4.465 bn for a residential site at an accommodation value of RMB 148,500/sqm, a new district record. The Suhewan plot in Jing'an went to a China Merchants Shekou & Yuexiu consortium for RMB 7.737 bn, at a saleable residential accommodation value of c. RMB 111,500/sqm. Bidding for the Yangpu Riverside plot was fierce, with Poly Property prevailing after multiple rounds at a 14.69% premium - the hottest plot of the batch.

Guangzhou: Greentown secures a Huangshadao residential plot in Panyu for RMB 496.8 m at a 17.78% premium

On 21 October, Guangzhou sold a residential plot in Panyu District for RMB 496.8 m. The plot has planned GFA of 19,155 sqm and a plot ratio of 1.1. After 16 rounds of bidding, Greentown South China Investment & Development acquired it for RMB 496.8 m, at an accommodation value of RMB 25,936/sqm and a premium of 17.78%.

Chengdu: New Hope consortium takes a Qinglong sub-district plot in Chenghua at reserve price for RMB 411 m

On 21 October, Chengdu sold one residential plot in Chenghua District at the municipal level for RMB 411 m. Located in Haibinwan Community, Qinglong Sub-district, Chenghua District, the plot has planned GFA of 36,668 sqm and a plot ratio of 2. New Hope and Ronghua Real Estate acquired it at an accommodation value of RMB 11,200/sqm, for a total consideration of RMB 411 m and a 0% premium.

Project Watch

Shanghai: Qiantan's first long-term rental apartment project, Yongcui No. 46, changes hands after a RMB 945 m listing at a 33% equity premium

Market sources report that Colliers, working closely with Lujiazui Group, helped introduce a well-known institution to acquire Yongcui No. 46, a core long-term rental apartment project in Qiantan. Qiantan Yongcui No. 46 is the first rental apartment project in Shanghai's Qiantan business district, located at Lane 163, Yuqiu Road, Pudong New Area, and developed and operated by Shanghai Hongpei Real Estate. It occupies a site of 11,700 sqm with total GFA of c. 55,000 sqm and comprises 184 fully fitted apartments (85-96 sqm two-bedroom units) with rents of RMB 12,000-19,000 per month, and has been effectively fully let since entering the market in 2019. In July 2025, Qiantan Investment, part of Lujiazui Group, listed the project for transfer at RMB 945 m, representing a 33% equity premium that signalled its expectations for the site's value appreciation.

Beijing: Vanke Port Apartment's Yuan'er | Jiugongxin community debuts with 1,505 units

Vanke's Port Apartment | Yuan'er | Jiugongxin community in Beijing has debuted. Located at No. 3 Yongmu Road, Jiugong Town, Daxing District, it is Port Apartment's latest newly built rental housing project in Beijing on collectively owned land, following the Chengshousi, Gaolizhuang and Caoqiao communities. With total GFA of c. 65,400 sqm across eight buildings, the community offers 1,505 quality units spanning studios and one-, two- and three-bedroom layouts, aiming to create a safe, clean, convenient and friendly large-scale quality rental community for young urban talent and family tenants of all ages.

Corporate Watch

Vanke acquires two residential-use plots in Chengdu's Pidu District and Xuzhou's Wanda East Plot C at reserve price

On 22 October, two residential-use plots were offered in Pidu District, Chengdu, both acquired at reserve price by Chengdu Hongwan Ruibo Real Estate Development. The same day, Xuzhou's Wanda East Plot C was offered and taken at reserve price by Xuzhou Mingke Enterprise Management, a Vanke subsidiary. Vanke has visibly pulled back on land acquisition since 2024; per its financial reports, it added 13 new projects in 2024. It has been even more restrained in 2025, adding six new projects in the first half.

Mengxi Mining acquires 100% of Sanya Huayuan Hot Spring Seaview Resort Hotel for RMB 289 m, a 31% premium

The China Beijing Equity Exchange recently published a completion notice showing that Inner Mongolia Mengxi Mining Co., Ltd. paid RMB 289 m for 100% of Sanya Huayuan Hot Spring Seaview Resort Hotel Co., Ltd. against a listing price of RMB 220 m - a premium of RMB 69 m, or 31% - drawing market attention. Per the listing notice, the hotel is an asset of centrally owned China Green Development Group, built to international four-star standards with 120 guest rooms. It is currently loss-making, with net profit of -RMB 3.3184 m in 2024 and -RMB 171,700 for January-June 2025.

CCB Housing Rental Fund launches "good apartment" product standard in Beijing, with 150+ control points across the full lifecycle

On 22 October, CCB Housing Rental Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. held the launch event for its CCB Long-Term Rental "good apartment" product standard. The event showcased the firm's practical results in implementing the Party Central Committee's and State Council's decisions on building "good housing", released the CCB Long-Term Rental "Good Apartment" Product Standard (the "Standard") and kicked off drafting of a Quiet Apartment Evaluation Standard. Guided by the vision of safe, comfortable, green and smart "good housing", the Standard targets the sector's particular characteristics and pain points, setting a goal of "five musts" - quiet, unhurried, reassuring, healthy and intelligent - and establishing more than 150 control points spanning planning and design, construction, and operations and maintenance.

KKR becomes preferred bidder for Nissan's Yokohama global headquarters at c. JPY 90 bn (nearly RMB 4.4 bn)

Media reports indicate that alternative asset management giant KKR, through its Japanese subsidiary KJR Management, has become the "preferred bidder" for Nissan's global headquarters building in Yokohama with a top bid of c. JPY 90 bn (USD 610 m at prevailing rates, or nearly RMB 4.4 bn), and is expected to sign a definitive agreement within one to two months. Nissan's March 2025 annual report put the property's net book value at JPY 107.5 bn; third-party valuer Sumitomo Mitsui Realty's latest valuation range is JPY 95-105 bn, implying a mid-point base valuation of JPY 100 bn (c. RMB 4.864 bn). The parties have reached agreement in principle on the main commercial terms (term sheet); if matters proceed smoothly, title transfer will complete before the end of FY2025 (31 March 2026).

Market Data

Home price declines narrow, completions turn positive YoY

On the morning of 20 October, the National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic and property data for the first three quarters of 2025 as scheduled. The economy ran broadly steadily, with sequential growth picking up slightly. In the property sector, the real estate climate index continued to slip and YoY declines in development investment and sales both widened. However, helped by the central government's push for high-quality urban development and high-quality housing construction, together with the market's own adjustment, YoY declines in the price index continued to narrow and the sector's supply-demand balance kept improving.

In September, nationwide new commodity housing sales area was 85.31 m sqm and sales value RMB 802.5 bn, up 49% and 43% MoM respectively. On a YoY basis, against a higher base in the same period of 2024, September 2025 sales area fell 10.5% and sales value fell 12%. For the first three quarters, cumulative sales area was down 5.5%, 0.8 ppts wider than the previous month.

New home prices fell MoM across all city tiers in September, while YoY declines continued to narrow. Tier-1 city new commodity home prices fell 0.7% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 ppts from the prior month; within that, Shanghai rose 5.6% while Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell 2.6%, 4.1% and 1.8% respectively. Tier-2 and tier-3 city prices fell 2.1% and 3.4% YoY respectively, with both declines narrowing by 0.3 ppts. With Nanning, Yichang and Sanya turning positive YoY, eight cities including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Taiyuan and Urumqi posted YoY new home price gains in September - the highest number of any month so far in 2025.

On a MoM basis, tier-1 city new commodity home prices fell 0.3%, 0.2 ppts wider than the prior month; within that, Beijing and Shanghai rose 0.2% and 0.3% while Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell 0.6% and 1.0%. Tier-2 city prices fell 0.4% MoM, 0.1 ppts wider, and tier-3 city prices fell 0.4% MoM, unchanged from the prior month.

On developer funding, new individual mortgage lending in September was RMB 102.7 bn, down 11% from a year earlier, with the decline narrowing by 8.5 ppts - broadly in line with the decline in sales area. On inventory, unsold commodity housing area fell 2.92 m sqm MoM in September, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, as sector inventory pressure continued to ease.